Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 24.101064 28.618880 34.258153 42.013061 52.744677 6.765927e+01 91.174542
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.136498 24.298355 31.493839 42.860703 61.742036 9.520938e+01 170.581341
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.822440 20.825180 28.238945 40.956222 64.745289 1.152128e+02 272.369203
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.970268 18.926141 26.649277 40.871928 70.558303 1.463111e+02 503.762495
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.244078 16.882005 24.338326 38.709837 71.020382 1.656452e+02 828.787581
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.747040 14.976413 21.906551 35.649812 68.072081 1.725547e+02 1204.220648
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.631065 13.545030 20.065306 33.325261 66.004970 1.814383e+02 1901.218985
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.832436 14.264699 22.080332 39.463664 90.011505 3.565815e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.553719 14.131410 22.500496 42.257159 107.010506 5.983476e+02 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.787505 13.065239 20.962256 39.912411 104.199804 6.548148e+02 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.513315 12.844527 21.066049 41.762689 119.744664 1.150094e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.111021 12.351216 20.543945 41.822366 127.993030 1.790078e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.699788 11.837872 19.982767 41.852436 137.829263 3.348204e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.386524 11.481003 19.713616 42.700441 154.151966 1.100385e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.919808 10.792973 18.633814 40.806514 151.991696 1.936747e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.618736 10.399059 18.162935 40.722683 162.583523 3.925218e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.216736 9.781453 17.123305 38.572297 156.205814 4.493853e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.789584 9.092277 15.869238 35.528283 141.223940 2.302378e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 5.436490 8.531357 14.872463 33.215444 131.065350 1.271149e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 5.607094 9.003122 16.287015 39.322079 199.949160 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 5.560196 9.037242 16.681397 42.100248 252.601303 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 5.274875 8.567727 15.797011 39.768400 236.274103 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 5.197794 8.521158 15.957163 41.608530 285.431980 NaN NaN